• Personal Investing
• Equity Risk Premium
• Supply and Demand!
• Portfolio Theory (#portfolio)
• Kelly Criterion, Ergodicity and Geometric Return
• Psychology
• Strategy
• Research
• Public Equities - Valuation
• Factor (#factor)
• Macro Viewpoints
• Crypto (#crypto)
• Quotes

Personal Investing

Equity Risk Premium

Supply and Demand!

• The lower this is, the more bullish. Lb for lb does anything else matter more?

Average Investor Equity Allocation

Portfolio Theory (#portfolio)

• Permanent portfolio makes a lot of sense to me intuitively. I can follow it, its diverse, and it respects the idea of focusing on risk (predictable, or more so) over return (random).

Kelly Criterion, Ergodicity and Geometric Return

📏Ergodicity & Kelly Betting

• Applies to anything in life that is probabilistic (so almost everything).
• Geometric Return is why you MUST focus on risk & draw downs (non-ergoditic). Let go of returns.
• Tail hedges —> if truly uncorrelated dont need positive edge, just ability to rebalance.
• Most things are or can be correlated (crowded trades). everything is long economic cycle, short vol
• equity vol, puts truly only "opposite" mathematical anti correlated asset

Psychology

• Time arbitrage is the most powerful for me (best intersection of effectiveness and competence)

Strategy

Research

Big Picture Research. For singles, see

Public Equities - Valuation

• Compound growth deserves the highest valuations (geometric)
• Book value no longer matters as much, cannot use for getting "cheapness" of equities
• Due to both intangible assets (brand, tech) and share buybacks (accounting distortion)

Factor (#factor)

• Value works because company's earnings stay low but the multiple re-rates higher.
• Growth works because the earnings make up for any stagnation or fall in valutaiton.
• Implies constantly need to be harvesting these to catch the inflection points.

Macro Viewpoints

• Junk yield spreads can be used to predict good investing beginning time frames (Verdad)

Crypto (#crypto)

Quotes

The Big Short Quote - Confirmation Bias, Narrative. Everyone is always doing this, always

“It was the first time in two years that Goldman Sachs had not moved the trade against him at the end of the month. “That was the first time they moved our marks accurately,” he notes, “because they were getting in on the trade themselves.” The market was finally accepting the diagnosis of its own disorder.”

https://obliviousinvestor.com/8-sample-and-simple-portfolios/

Some Easy Investing Rule...