- Personal Investing
- Equity Risk Premium
- Supply and Demand!
- Portfolio Theory (#portfolio)
- Kelly Criterion, Ergodicity and Geometric Return
- Psychology
- Strategy
- Research
- Public Equities - Valuation
- Factor (#factor)
- Macro Viewpoints
- Crypto (#crypto)
- Quotes
Date | Rating | Title | Author | Status | Subtitle | Tagline | Takeaway | Type | Dojo Topic | Pages | Recommend | Cover | Arena | My Notes & Ideas (Files) | URL |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
November 19, 2020 | 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | George Soros | Read | And what it Means | A New Paradigm for Financial Markets | Fallibility and reflexivity | Non Fiction | 225 | |||||||
August 31, 2020 | 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Tim Lee, Jamie Lee & Kevin Coldiron | Read | The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis | Of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis | All financial assets (all power) is one big carry trade. | Non Fiction | 200 | |||||||
January 1, 2018 | 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | The Outsiders | William Thorndike | Read | Best CEOs in history - what did they do? | Capital allocaiton is #1 job, and its not close | Non Fiction | 220 | |||||||
March 1, 2023 | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Systematic Trading | Rob Carver | Read | Really good base | Textbook | 300 | ||||||||
June 26, 2022 | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Investing Amid Low Exptected Returns | Antti Illmanen | Read | Be patient. Diversify. Add Trend | Textbook | 250 | ||||||||
December 27, 2018 | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | The Ivy Portfolio | Meb Faber | Read | Invest like Endowments and avoid bear markets | simple and evenly distributed | Non Fiction | 240 | |||||||
January 1, 2019 | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Greg Zuckerman | Read | Story of Ren-Tech | math and trading costs matter | Non Fiction | 375 | ||||||||
January 1, 2018 | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Thinking in Bets | Annie Duke | Read | Lessons from Poker Career | Use probabiliyt, be comfortable with uncertainty | Non Fiction | 234 | |||||||
January 1, 2018 | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | A Man for All Markets | Ed Thorp | Read | Blackjack guy but went on to run uber successful fund | Rational thinking, discipline and immature markets recipe for massive success | Non Fiction | 350 | |||||||
January 1, 2018 | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Skin in the Game | Taleb | Read | Academics cant be trusted, successful practinioners can | He is arrogant but most of ideas have some merti | Non Fiction | 250 | |||||||
January 1, 2017 | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Winning Bond Strategy | Larry Swedroe | Read | How to use bonds in portfolio (ladder, rolldown) | Dry but good overview, esp why u would want manager | Non Fiction | 272 | |||||||
November 28, 2021 | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | Antti Ilmanen | Read | diversify the risk premiums you are collecting | Non Fiction | 150 | |||||||||
January 1, 2019 | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | Am I Being Too Subtle | Sam Zell | Read | buy real estate leveraged in 1970s | jump in and do something! | Non Fiction | 225 | |||||||
January 1, 2019 | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth | Nick Murray | Read | DCA, invest in equities | Non Fiction | 164 | ||||||||
January 1, 2018 | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | The Most Important Thing | Howard Marks | Read | Investment letters | Cycles cyles cycles | Non Fiction | 220 | |||||||
January 1, 2018 | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | The Little Book that Beats the Market | Joel Greenblatt | Read | Small, cheap companies with leverage | Basket of 25 stocks is enough. 2-3 years underpformanice but over time works | Non Fiction | 120 | |||||||
January 1, 2017 | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | Black Edge | Sheelah Kolhatkar | Read | True Story of Steve Cohen SAC insider trading | Bad dudes in a shady industry. | Non Fiction | 368 | |||||||
January 1, 2016 | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | The Courage to Act | Ben Bernanke | Read | Ben writes about acting during crisis | Have to think outside the box do whats right | Non Fiction | 624 | |||||||
January 1, 2016 | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | Capital Returns | Edward Chancelor | Read | Collection of investment essays by marathon Capital | Value works over long cycles | Non Fiction | 211 | |||||||
January 1, 2017 | 2 ⭐⭐ | Investing: The Last Liberal Art | Robert Hagstrom | Read | Investing touches all knowledge | Munger Mental models, biological systems, chaos, reflexivity, psychology, narrative | Non Fiction | 224 | |||||||
July 21, 2020 | Davidson & Rees-Mogg | Notes Only | Individuals will accrue power in 21st century | Govt on decline, decentralization | Non Fiction |
Name | Author | Satus | Future Value | Dojo | Category | Theme | Notes | P.A.R.A. | Projects | Goal Outcomes | Notes & Ideas | Tags | URL | Value Goals | Created | Arena | Full Title | Updated | Last Highlighted | Last Synced | Description | Link | Subtopics | |
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Flirting with Models | Active | 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Podcast | Trading | How to find an Edge | Notes | Jul 28, 2020 3:46 PM | May 30, 2021 12:17 PM | ||||||||||||||||
Kris Abdelmessiah | Read | 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Article | Trading | Source | Apr 18, 2021 6:51 PM | May 30, 2021 12:17 PM | |||||||||||||||||
Nick Yoder | Read | 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Model | Trading | Source | Apr 15, 2021 7:11 PM | May 30, 2021 12:17 PM | |||||||||||||||||
dpg ref from Squeeze | Read | 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Article | Trading | Source | Apr 7, 2021 12:50 AM | May 30, 2021 12:17 PM | |||||||||||||||||
Patrick O'Shaugnessy | Read | 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Article | Investing | Summary | Mar 28, 2021 11:16 PM | Mar 28, 2021 11:18 PM | |||||||||||||||||
@LAForeverHall | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Tweets | Investing | awesome, unique thread on investing | Source | trading | Dec 23, 2019 12:59 AM | Aug 19, 2020 4:45 PM | ||||||||||||||||
Breaking the Market | Active | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Bookmark | Investing | NP | Sep 28, 2020 1:18 PM | Sep 28, 2020 1:20 PM | |||||||||||||||||
@jposhaughnessy on Twitter | Read | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | tweets | Investing | Source | Aug 19, 2020 5:12 PM | Aug 19, 2020 5:14 PM | August 19, 2020 1:11 PM (EST) | August 19, 2020 1:12 PM (EST) | |||||||||||||||
Robot James | Read | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Tweets | InvestingTrading | Source | Apr 15, 2021 11:39 PM | May 30, 2021 12:17 PM | Edge especially when considering SKEW | ||||||||||||||||
macrocephalopod | Read | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Tweets | Trading | Source | Apr 15, 2021 12:07 AM | May 30, 2021 12:17 PM | |||||||||||||||||
Robot James | Read | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Tweets | Investing | Source | Apr 1, 2021 3:02 PM | May 30, 2021 12:10 PM | |||||||||||||||||
Alex Good | Read | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Tweets | Trading | Source | Jan 28, 2021 11:45 PM | May 30, 2021 12:18 PM | |||||||||||||||||
Alex Good | Read | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Tweets | Trading | Source | Jan 19, 2021 2:19 AM | May 30, 2021 12:23 PM | |||||||||||||||||
patio11 | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | Tweets | Investing | Source | trading | Dec 23, 2019 11:50 AM | Aug 19, 2020 4:45 PM | |||||||||||||||||
Byrne Hobart | Read | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | Article | Investing | Notes | Aug 13, 2020 4:14 PM | Every Investor is a Market-Maker - The Diff | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | August 13, 2020 12:05 PM (EST) | August 13, 2020 12:14 PM (EST) | ||||||||||||||
Kevin Zhou | To Read | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | Article | Source | Jun 7, 2021 11:14 AM | Jul 18, 2021 12:40 PM | ||||||||||||||||||
Business | May 22, 2020 4:28 PM | Jul 27, 2020 1:23 PM | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Bookmark | Business | NP | Dec 10, 2019 7:11 PM | Jul 27, 2020 1:23 PM | ||||||||||||||||||||
Alex Danco | Article | Business | Source | Sep 24, 2019 12:31 AM | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | |||||||||||||||||||
Keith Rabois | Article | Business | Source | Jul 5, 2019 12:11 AM | Jul 27, 2020 2:07 PM | |||||||||||||||||||
Article | Business | Source | Jul 2, 2019 11:59 PM | Jul 27, 2020 2:07 PM | ||||||||||||||||||||
The State of Micro PE | Mario The Generalist | Active | Jan 31, 2021 3:57 PM | Jun 24, 2022 12:35 PM | ||||||||||||||||||||
Travis Twitter | Read | Tweets | why diversify - at the philosophical level | Source | Feb 23, 2022 2:14 AM | Feb 28, 2022 3:53 PM |
Personal Investing
- Does a great job setting the stage for how I invest personally:
Equity Risk Premium
- ERP doesn't exist if you look at stock; only stock indexes! ERP is explained by math: https://breakingthemarket.com/solving-the-equity-premium-puzzle-and-uncovering-a-huge-flaw-in-investment-theory/
- Mistaken equivalency between a single asset and a portfolio:
- Treasury bills (and bonds) are a single investment item. An equity market index (SP500 for the original study and many others) is a portfolio of many investments, who’s composition changes all the time. They are not the same thing and shouldn’t be compared as if they are!
- People did not invest in a market index strategy before 1975, they invested in individual stocks. Until very recently, when passive investing gained a large following, people still generally invested in individual stocks.
- “Stocks” and the “Stock Market Index” are not the same thing and never have been. One is an asset class, the other is a trading strategy of that asset class. They don’t behave the same and don’t have the same properties, return, or standard deviation. You can’t use one to replace the other.
- When you compare the geometric return of stocks not a stock index you do not find an ERP!
- The Equity Premium Puzzle has lasted for 37 years without anyone recognizing the market index doesn’t represent stocks.
- Me: So index ERP is closer to 6% - .5 * (about 16 vol)^2 = 3.5%
Supply and Demand!
- The lower this is, the more bullish. Lb for lb does anything else matter more?
Portfolio Theory (#portfolio)
Name | Author | Category | Satus | Future Value | URL | P.A.R.A. | Arena | Notes | Projects | Dojo | Full Title | Goal Outcomes | Last Highlighted | Last Synced | Notes & Ideas | Created | Tags | Theme | Updated | Value Goals | |
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breakingthemarket | Article | Read | 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Source | Oct 12, 2020 11:42 PM | portfolio | Investing | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | |||||||||||||
Resolve with Chris Schindler | Video | Read | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Notes | Jul 22, 2020 6:49 PM | portfolio | Investing | Aug 13, 2020 4:17 PM | |||||||||||||
Josh Kaufman | Article | Jul 10, 2020 11:41 AM | portfolio | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | |||||||||||||||||
Jul 9, 2020 7:38 PM | portfolio | Aug 19, 2020 11:21 AM | |||||||||||||||||||
Jan 14, 2020 2:08 AM | portfolio | Investing | Aug 19, 2020 3:06 PM | ||||||||||||||||||
Corey Hoffstein | White Paper | Source | Sep 24, 2019 10:51 AM | portfolio | Investing | Jul 27, 2020 2:58 PM |

We also believe that there exist theoretical limits to diversification. If we eliminate risk through diversification, we also eliminate reward. In other words: no pain, no premium.
Like an insurance company, we want to diversify the premiums we earn. Not only do we want to diversify within a given type of insurance, but we probably also want to diversify the type of insurance we offer.
Yet while we can we can seek to diversify the risks we insure, there are few truly independent risk factor and the premiums aren’t often large enough to offset large losses.
- What are we investing in: correlation diversification (although this is limited)
- This axis captures the traditional notions of asset class and geographic diversification.
- How: payoff diversification
- When: Timing luck
As with asset classes, return appears to be a compensation for bearing asymmetric risk or negative skew.
Trend has long-been established to exhibit positive skew. Indeed, it may very well be a mathematical byproduct of the trading strategy itself rather than an anomaly.
While the findings of Lemperiere, Deremble, Nguyen, Seager, Potters and Bouchaud (2016) imply that style premia are not exceptions to the “no pain, no premium” rule, we should not be dissuaded from considering the potential benefits of their incorporation within a portfolio.
After all, not only might we potentially benefit from the fact that their negative states might be somewhat independent of economic risk factors (acknowledging, as always, the philosophical limits of diversification), but the trading strategies themselves create varying payoff profiles that differ from one another.
For example, when we overlay a naive trend strategy on top of U.S. equities, the result converges towards a distribution where we simply miss the best and worst years. However, because the worst years tend to be worse than the best years are good, it leads to a less skewed distribution.
In effect, we’ve fought negative skew with positive skew.

- Permanent portfolio makes a lot of sense to me intuitively. I can follow it, its diverse, and it respects the idea of focusing on risk (predictable, or more so) over return (random).
Kelly Criterion, Ergodicity and Geometric Return
- Applies to anything in life that is probabilistic (so almost everything).
- Geometric Return is why you MUST focus on risk & draw downs (non-ergoditic). Let go of returns.
- Tail hedges —> if truly uncorrelated dont need positive edge, just ability to rebalance.
- Most things are or can be correlated (crowded trades). everything is long economic cycle, short vol
- equity vol, puts truly only "opposite" mathematical anti correlated asset
Psychology
- Time arbitrage is the most powerful for me (best intersection of effectiveness and competence)
One reason we can't have nice investment strategies--a thread (Jim O)
The brightest people I have met share a superpower that would serve investors well—the ability to make inherently complex things simple and understandable. And yet, most humans naturally equate complexity with brilliance. We also prefer the complex and artificial to the simple and unadorned. We are certain that investment success requires an incredibly complex ability to judge a host of variables correctly and then act upon that knowledge.
Prof. Alex Bavelas designed a fascinating experiment in which two subjects, Smith and Jones, face individual projection screens. They cannot see or communicate with each other. They’re told that the purpose of the experiment is to learn to recognize the difference between healthy and sick cells. They must learn to distinguish between the two using trial and error. In front of each are two buttons marked Healthy and Sick, along with two signal lights marked Right and Wrong. Every time the slide is projected, they guess if it’s healthy or sick by pressing the button so marked. After they guess, their signal light will flash Right or Wrong, informing them if they have guessed correctly. Here’s the hitch—only Smith gets true feedback. If he’s correct, his light flashes Right, if he’s wrong, it flashes Wrong.
Because he’s getting true feedback, Smith soon starts getting around 80% correct, because it’s a matter of simple discrimination. Jones’s situation is entirely different. He doesn’t get true feedback based on guesses. Rather, the feedback he gets is based on Smith’s guesses! It doesn’t matter if he’s right or wrong about a particular slide; he’s told he’s right if Smith guessed right or wrong if Smith guessed wrong. Of course, Jones doesn’t know this. He’s been told that a true order exists that he can discover from the feedback.
He entered searching for order when there is no way to find it. The moderator then asks Smith and Jones to discuss the rules they use for judging healthy and sick cells. Smith, who got true feedback, offers rules are simple, concrete, and to the point. Jones on the other hand, uses rules that are, out of necessity, subtle, complex, and highly adorned. After all, he had to base his opinions on contradictory guesses and hunches.
The amazing thing is that Smith doesn’t think Jones’s explanations are absurd, crazy, or unnecessarily complicated. He’s impressed by the “brilliance” of Jones’s method and feels inferior and vulnerable because of the pedestrian simplicity of his own rules. The more complicated and ornate Jones’s explanations, the more likely they are to convince Smith.
Before the next test with new slides, the two are asked to guess who will do better than in the first time around. All Joneses and most Smiths say that Jones will. In fact, Jones shows no improvement at all. Smith, on the other hand, does significantly worse than he did the first time around, because he’s now making guesses based on some of the complicated rules he learned from Jones.
Think of all the times you've listened to the talking heads on #FinTV or read predictions and forecasts in the financial press and on blogs. Who sounds smarter, the person using $10 words and fancy jargon or the simple Sam who cites a few easy to understand and implement "common sense" ideas? Whose ideas are clear, concise and understandable? Sam's. Who are we likely to believe is a brilliant market thinker? Mr. or Ms. Complexity. When you hear or read someone weaving their ideas into a beautiful mosaic of words, try to remember, they are almost certainly wrong. And they might even be honest-minded--they are so good at it that first they baffle themselves with bullshit, and then move on to try and convince everyone else. Also remember, the more certain they sound, the less certain you should be.
Successful investing is simple, but, boy oh boy, it ain't easy.
Strategy
Name | Author | Category | Satus | Future Value | URL | P.A.R.A. | Arena | Notes | Projects | Dojo | Full Title | Goal Outcomes | Last Highlighted | Last Synced | Notes & Ideas | Created | Tags | Theme | Updated | Value Goals | |
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Deadspin | Article | Read | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | Source | Aug 12, 2020 4:04 PM | fam bizstrategy | Business | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | |||||||||||||
Turner Novak | Article | Read | 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Source | May 26, 2020 8:06 PM | socialstrategy | Investing | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | |||||||||||||
Alex Danco | Article | Source | Sep 15, 2019 5:40 PM | strategy | Business | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | |||||||||||||||
Jerry Neumann | Tweets | Summary | Sep 8, 2019 4:04 PM | strategy | Investing | Aug 19, 2020 4:30 PM | |||||||||||||||
Chenmark Capital | Tweets | Source | 5 ways to evaluate | Sep 8, 2019 4:04 PM | datastrategy | Investing | Nov 13, 2020 5:27 PM | ||||||||||||||
Patrick O | Tweets | To Read | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Source | Jun 11, 2019 5:10 PM | strategy | Investing | Aug 19, 2020 4:14 PM |
Research
Big Picture Research. For singles, see
Name | Author | Category | Satus | Future Value | URL | P.A.R.A. | Arena | Notes | Projects | Dojo | Full Title | Goal Outcomes | Last Highlighted | Last Synced | Notes & Ideas | Created | Tags | Theme | Updated | Value Goals | |
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@borrowed_ideas | Tweets | Read | 3 ⭐⭐⭐ | Source | Aug 17, 2020 10:07 PM | research | Aug 19, 2020 4:27 PM | ||||||||||||||
"Jesse Livermore" | Article | Read | 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Source | Jul 10, 2020 4:11 PM | public equityresearch | Investing | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | |||||||||||||
Apr 25, 2020 9:32 AM | research | Investing | Aug 19, 2020 4:32 PM | ||||||||||||||||||
Article | Feb 10, 2020 12:10 AM | public equityresearch | Investing | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | |||||||||||||||||
OSAM | Article | Read | Source | Dec 17, 2019 8:49 PM | research | Investing | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | ||||||||||||||
Macro Ops | Article | Source | Dec 15, 2019 3:59 PM | researchpublic equity | Business | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | |||||||||||||||
Reformed Trader | Bookmark | Not PARA | Dec 11, 2019 10:54 AM | research | Investing | Aug 19, 2020 3:42 PM | |||||||||||||||
Philosophical Economics | Article | To Read | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Source | Nov 19, 2019 7:58 PM | research | Investing | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | |||||||||||||
Tweets | Source | Sep 14, 2019 5:36 PM | public equityresearch | Investing | Aug 19, 2020 4:32 PM | ||||||||||||||||
OSAM | White Paper | Read | Source | Jul 15, 2019 5:58 PM | research | Investing | Aug 19, 2020 3:42 PM | ||||||||||||||
Jesse Livermore | Article | Source | Jul 2, 2019 1:28 PM | public equityresearch | Investing | Aug 19, 2020 3:44 PM |
Public Equities - Valuation
- Compound growth deserves the highest valuations (geometric)
- Book value no longer matters as much, cannot use for getting "cheapness" of equities
- Due to both intangible assets (brand, tech) and share buybacks (accounting distortion)
Factor (#factor)
- Value works because company's earnings stay low but the multiple re-rates higher.
- Growth works because the earnings make up for any stagnation or fall in valutaiton.
- Implies constantly need to be harvesting these to catch the inflection points.
Macro Viewpoints
Notes on three current megatrends — ageing, inequality, and access to information. “The world is driven by tail events. A minority of things drive the majority of outcomes. It’s one of the most important concepts in investing, where a few positions may account for most of your lifetime returns. Demographics, inequality, and information access will have a huge impact on the coming decades. How those Big Things end is a story yet to be told. But when it’s told we’ll have a better idea of where it began”
"QE turned your savings account into your checking account, the bond market into your savings account, the equity market into the bond market, the VC market into the equity market, and crypto into the VC market." - @joemccann
- Junk yield spreads can be used to predict good investing beginning time frames (Verdad)
Name | Author | Category | Satus | Future Value | URL | P.A.R.A. | Arena | Notes | Projects | Dojo | Full Title | Goal Outcomes | Last Highlighted | Last Synced | Notes & Ideas | Created | Tags | Theme | Updated | Value Goals | |
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Byrne Hobart | Article | Read | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | currency issues | Jul 27, 2020 6:37 PM | macro | Investing | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM | |||||||||||||
Byrne Hobart | Read | May 18, 2020 12:50 PM | macro | Investing | Aug 19, 2020 3:05 PM | ||||||||||||||||
Dan Rassmussan | Article | Read | 4 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | Feb 19, 2020 11:42 AM | macro | Investing | Dec 30, 2020 6:32 PM |
Crypto (#crypto)
At Paxos, we are re-building the infrastructure of finance. We want to make it possible to move any assets anywhere, instantly – and therefore democratize access to a new, global, frictionless economy.
We take a two-pronged approach of establishing regulatory designations that give us access to the current financial infrastructure and developing innovative products. This allows us to operate as a gateway between traditional finance and the digital future.
Since its founding in 2012, Paxos has always sought to enable the movement of assets, starting with the launch of the itBit exchange in Singapore. In 2015, the New York State Department of Financial Services granted Paxos a limited-purpose trust charter, thus establishing it as the first company approved and regulated to offer crypto products and services. By seeking the highest forms of regulation and compliance, Paxos has distinguished itself within the blockchain industry and earned the trust of discerning institutional and individual investors.
Paxos has since continued to operate within established regulatory frameworks while creating innovative new products. This includes workstreams in the tokenization of securities, precious metals and commodities, such as the Paxos Standard token, a digital dollar launched in 2018.
Along the way, Paxos has raised over $93M in venture funding, added distinguished luminaries including Sheila Bair and Senator Bill Bradley to the board, and grown to 110 employees in three global offices.
Quotes
The Big Short Quote - Confirmation Bias, Narrative. Everyone is always doing this, always
“It was the first time in two years that Goldman Sachs had not moved the trade against him at the end of the month. “That was the first time they moved our marks accurately,” he notes, “because they were getting in on the trade themselves.” The market was finally accepting the diagnosis of its own disorder.”