Notes & Ideas

Personal Investing

Moontower's Money Wiki

Equity Risk Premium

Equity Risk Premium —> or why you should Index

Supply and Demand!

Portfolio Theory (#portfolio)

Portfolio Media
Composition of Wealth by Net Worth. Higher NW —> More diversity (less primary, more business ownership)
Diversification: More Than Just What's In The Basket
  • Permanent portfolio makes a lot of sense to me intuitively. I can follow it, its diverse, and it respects the idea of focusing on risk (predictable, or more so) over return (random).
Stats by asset class (skew, mean, etc)

Kelly Criterion, Ergodicity and Geometric Return

  • Applies to anything in life that is probabilistic (so almost everything).
  • Geometric Return is why you MUST focus on risk & draw downs (non-ergoditic). Let go of returns.
  • Tail hedges —> if truly uncorrelated dont need positive edge, just ability to rebalance.
    • Most things are or can be correlated (crowded trades). everything is long economic cycle, short vol
    • equity vol, puts truly only "opposite" mathematical anti correlated asset


  • Time arbitrage is the most powerful for me (best intersection of effectiveness and competence)
Simple vs Complex


Strategy Media


Big Picture Research. For singles, see

Research Media

Public Equities - Valuation

  • Compound growth deserves the highest valuations (geometric)
  • Book value no longer matters as much, cannot use for getting "cheapness" of equities
    • Due to both intangible assets (brand, tech) and share buybacks (accounting distortion)

Factor (#factor)

  • Value works because company's earnings stay low but the multiple re-rates higher.
  • Growth works because the earnings make up for any stagnation or fall in valutaiton.
  • Implies constantly need to be harvesting these to catch the inflection points.

Macro Viewpoints

Three Big Things - Morgan Housel | Collaborative Fund | 4th October 2019
QE Asset Class Transform
  • Junk yield spreads can be used to predict good investing beginning time frames (Verdad)
Macro Media

Crypto (#crypto)

Custodian Company | Paxos
Crypto Links


The Big Short Quote - Confirmation Bias, Narrative. Everyone is always doing this, always

“It was the first time in two years that Goldman Sachs had not moved the trade against him at the end of the month. “That was the first time they moved our marks accurately,” he notes, “because they were getting in on the trade themselves.” The market was finally accepting the diagnosis of its own disorder.”
The Kelly Criterion - Quantitative Trading
The Playing Field - Graham Duncan Blog
Some Easy Investing Rule...
Some Easy Investing Rule...
How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor | Valueinvesting.de
Verdad’s Finance Curriculum
Trend Following is Hot Air -
Inelastic Market Hypothesis
All Moontower Meta Blog Posts
Summary Of Jesse Livermore's "Upside Down Markets"
Wifey Quant Models
Squeeze on how to learn Python